Life is a numbers game. There are no guarantees, only risks and probabilities. The question we face is “How likely is it that I (you, they, it) will … ?” In responding to uncertainty, however, it is important to understand that “possibility” does not mean “probability.”
May the odds be with you.
Possibility is an either/or condition; something is possible or it is not; either 100 percent or 0 percent; you win the lottery, or you don’t. On the other hand, probability reflects everything between absolute certainty and impossibility. Probabilities help us make educated appraisals of the future—such as getting that raise or whether to take an umbrella to the picnic—and better decisions based upon those appraisals.
Dream BIG (but have a backup).
Probability helps illuminate reality as it exists, not as we want it to be. Every young and talented basketball player dreams of one day playing in the NBA. What’s the probability you will make it to the top? Educator Jawanza Kunjufu and colleagues (2007) at Tufts University calculate the odds: of 1,000,000 boys and girls that wish to be in the NBA, 400,000 make their high school basketball team, 4,000 play in college, 35 make it to the NBA, and of those only seven are starters. This works out to less than 1 out of every 10,000 high school hoopsters and fewer than 1 in every 100 college players that will make the big leagues.
For the crème-de-la-crème who prevail? If a busted ankle doesn’t sideline you early, keep in mind the average NBA career is four years (optimism trap*). So, for all you aspiring Lebron Jameses, it’s okay to take a calculated risk. Just make sure you have a clear answer to the question, “What’s my backup career?” Here’s your defense plan: chat with a tribal elder who’s dribbled that court before, and keep those textbooks dusted!
Place your bets.
Superior talent and hard work alone are not sufficient to propel you to the ranks of the rich and famous. The world is awash with talented detritus. In reality, the odds of attaining extraordinary income or great wealth are so slim for Gen NeXters that your concern would be more fruitfully turned to the risks of not even being part of the middle class. Fail to make smart choices while you’re young and regret could be your endgame.
Of course, there’s always a possibility you will hit the jackpot. After all, you can’t win if you don’t play, right? But consider the probability: you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery. Experience shows the best bet you can make is on yourself. Who cuts your slice of the pie? YOU DO!
If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster.
~ Clint Eastwood, actor, director
* Questionable beliefs can “trap” our better judgment, leading to poor decisions and unintended consequences. In the optimism trap, we often underestimate the impact of random chance and uncontrollable events on our future well-being. Learn more about this, and other traps, in the Young Person’s Guide to Wisdom, Power, and Life Success.
Image credit: “Man surrounded by women playing roulette” by agencyby, licensed from 123rf.com (2015).
