For every generation after WWII until now, population flowed from the city to the suburbs. But that tide, which long seemed inexorable, has begun to reverse. Nowadays, America’s cities are competing to lure well-educated Gen NeXters into vibrant and growing urban cores.
Urban tribes are clustering.
According to urbanist Jane Jacobs, virtually all economic development since the dawn of time has been generated in cities. So, what gives urbanites the edge over their country cousins? It is the concentration of talent, what economists call human capital, explains economist Deirdre McCloskey. “By packing together so many people from different backgrounds, and with a great variety of skills, cities are hothouses for creativity, collaboration, and efficiency. Think of the fusion foods, the cultural inventions, the technological marvels, and the cornucopia of new goods that dynamic cities regularly produce,” she says.
Cities are trying hard to attract and root talented young persons by offering a better quality of life. If you have creative talent, this translates into a good job market, cultural, social and intellectual institutions (such as restaurants, arts, parks, universities, etc.), appealing aesthetics, and safe neighborhoods. What urbanist Richard Florida refers to as the “clustering force,” magnifies the collective creativity and economic wealth output of the place that we inhabit.
Despite glossy literature and spin, not all cities are successful at winning them over. In 2010, more than 43% of graduates chose to live in 20 metropolitan areas, primarily tech hubs such as Seattle, San Francisco, and Raleigh, N.C., according to research from the Brookings Institution. This means that almost half of college graduates in the nation’s biggest cities are clustered in just 20 places. That’s a huge concentration of the well-educated workforce.
The young and the restless.
How we feel and what we value about the communities we live in is changing. An Urban Land Institute (2013) survey of views on housing, transportation, and community found 38% of respondents age 18-24 plan to live in medium or large cities. Only 16% say they plan to move to a rural area. Like Dick Whittington (and his cat), they are reacting to the tolling of the bells.
Data from a U.S. Census Bureau (2014) report on population trends show that nearly 60% of rural counties shrank in population in 2013, up from 50% in 2009 and around 40% in the late 1990s. Rural America now accounts for just 16 percent of the nation’s population, the lowest ever. Even as more young people move to urban and suburban areas for jobs, aging country workers are seeking out more-populated places to retire. If that weren’t difficult enough, across much of rural America about 40% of counties tallied more deaths than births in 2013—a rate more than twice what was seen in metro counties. It seems that Smallville, USA is fading in the rearview.
The “Big Sort.”
The larger effect, say economists, is we are increasingly becoming sorted by income, by social and economic status, and by the kind of work we do. People with low- and moderate-incomes may be trapped in communities where options are limited and the means to get out and move up are ever sparser. These aren’t just laid off factory workers and farm hands. People find themselves rooted because of their mortgage, professional licenses, health insurance, family obligations, and so on. It also includes college-educated NeXters entering the global job market with no job prospects and high debt.
As individuals become more affluent, better educated, and freer to make their own personal choices, they acquire the means to live in the kind of community they want to. For some, it’s freedom of choice. For others, not so much. Which will it be for you? Who cuts your slice of the pie? You do!
Location still matters. The more things are mobile, the more decisive location becomes.
~ Michael Porter, competitive strategy expert
Learn more about this, and other interesting topics, in the Young Person’s Guide to Wisdom, Power, and Life Success.
Image credit: “Couple standing in Times Square” by goodluz licensed from 123rf.com (2015).