Remember hearing, “You can do anything if you try hard enough” or “If you believe it, you can achieve it”? Most parents offered positive affirmations that encouraged their kids to succeed. What they didn’t do a good job of was telling you what to avoid.
Visualize the negative.
Stoicism was a philosophy founded by Zeno of Citium in the early 3rd century B.C.E. Stoics flourished among ancient Greeks and Romans and offered a series of practical applications to help followers become better people. One powerful exercise, called premeditatio malorum or “premeditation of evils,” has us identify the negative things that could disrupt our plans. Psychologist Gary Klein calls this process of anticipatory thinking premortem.
Premortem is simple to do. We envision our plan was a disaster and then ask ourself: What went wrong? The exercise grounds us in reality and uncovers pitfalls we’ll need to avoid. It also helps counteract cognitive bias—errors in thinking that influence how we make decisions. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, psychologist Daniel Kahneman suggests we do a premortem before we start working towards our goals (ed. note: for a team application of the technique, see The Premortem Technique).
Avoid stupid decisions.
Ambitious young people fixate on how to achieve success (see: Bill Gates did it). But bazillionaire Charlie Munger, #2 man to Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway, says it’s more important that we ask ourselves “What do I want to avoid?” You’d think this is logically the same thing, but it’s not. Focusing attention on how to avoid big mistakes matters more than brilliance, he advises.
Of course, none of us can predict the unexpected. But we can take measures to avoid creating our own catastrophes. Achieving success is not just about making winning choices; it’s also about avoiding the lifebombs—unintended consequences that we will later regret.² Young persons are especially at risk of what Munger calls “stupid decisions” because they’re full of energy, lack experience, and are impatient.
Preventing failure ≠ Encouraging success.
With good intentions, many parents insulate their children from the complex realities of adulthood. Ironically, in a time when important life-choices require a considerable degree of sophistication, these snowflakes are mentally operating in cruise control. This narrows their perspectives, leading to choices that can jade future happiness (projection trap*). Once out of the nest, they’ll discover they’re under-prepared to deal with the real world. Here’s what you can do to avoid stupid decisions:
- Know yourself. Each of us—through experience or study—learns what situations to avoid. Smart NeXters know when to ask for advice and listen to what others tell them. Acknowledging our mistakes requires a great deal of self-awareness and humility.
- Adhere to your values. As we accumulate knowledge, we build mental models of how a complex world works. Integrating new knowledge into our framework of values helps us to better determine what we really need to avoid.
- What can go wrong? A premortem forces us to consider errors in our assumptions along with potential setbacks. Before getting noosed, ask what behaviors might ruin a marriage. If you want to get rich, consider the ways you could lose money. Headed for the Alaskan bush? Think about mosquitoes and moose jockeys.
- Read a lot. “I don’t know anyone who’s wise who doesn’t read a lot” says Munger. But being a lifetime student isn’t enough: we must acquire wisdom and do sensible things with what we know. Avoiding lifebombs is an under-appreciated success skill.
Great minds like a think.
It’s not enough to learn how to pick winners; the Internet is choked with “Top 10” lists telling us how to succeed in business, love, sports, whatever. It’s also important that we learn to avoid losers. Premortem—thinking about what could go wrong ahead of time—challenges our beliefs, envisions the pitfalls, and helps us overcome fear of failure. So, next time you’ve got big plans, give it a burl, mate. Now, that’s something to be stoic about!
Summing it up, it is clear the future holds great opportunities. It also
holds pitfalls. The trick is to avoid the pitfalls, seize the
opportunities, and get back home by six o’clock.
~ Woody Allen, film director
¹ Title from James Clear, author, photographer (thank you).
² Some lifebombs, such as pregnancy, are soon obvious. Others are latent until your goose is fully cooked. Misuse of credit, for example, can stealthily undermine your financial security over time.
* Questionable beliefs can “trap” our better judgment, leading to poor decisions and unintended consequences. In the projection trap, focusing on the isolated present may be detrimental to our long-term happiness. Learn more about this, and other interesting topics, in the Young Person’s Guide to Wisdom, Power, and Life Success.
Image credit: “Korean beautiful teenage girl” by Rusian Solntsev, licensed from 123rf.com (2018).
